Obama’s Convention Bounce

As expected Barack Obama’s convention bounce has arrived.

Via Gallup Poll:

Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention “bounce” that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening’s high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night’s speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night’s speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night’s lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

Gallup’s interviewing for last Friday through Sunday, the last three days before the convention officially began, showed the race at a 45% to 45% tie. Thus, there is already a six percentage point bounce evident in the data, although the final “official” post-convention bounce used in comparison with other recent conventions will not be tabulated by Gallup until interviewing for Friday through Sunday is completed (reported next Monday on gallup.com).

Of keen interest this year will be the dynamics of the race in the forthcoming days, as John McCain, by all accounts, will attempt to pounce on the Democrats’ bounce by announcing his vice presidential running mate either Thursday night or Friday and with attention turning quickly to the Republican convention that is set to begin on Monday in St. Paul. Also in the mix this year will be an act of nature; if Tropical Storm Gustav becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast sometime on Tuesday, news coverage of the GOP convention will be diluted, and the impact of that situation (coming some three years after Hurricane Katrina) is impossible to predict.

The Graphs:

Of course, if you’re objective reporter, and not in the tank for Obama. (Unlike some) You would simply say that this is due to the Democratic Convention and because of Obama’s selection of white running mate, which has most likely reassured some of the more undecided voters.

As it says above, this coming hurricane could also cause the Republicans some serious issues. Especially if there is widespread damage. Hopefully, this won’t be the case, because I am truly looking forward to viewing this upcoming convention.

On the long term, I personally believe that these polls will even out and perhaps go more towards McCain, especially during the Republican Convention. This is unless a hurricane hits the coast hard.

Others: TownHall Blog, The Moderate Voice, www.redstate.com, Hot Air

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