McCain enjoys a post convention poll bounce

John McCain coming out of the Republican Convention has enjoyed a bounce in the polls, of about 3%, above the 3% margin of error.

Gallop Poll reports the following:

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow’s report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party’s presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

The Charts:

I guess that I am in agreement with AllahPundit on this one. I don’t expect this really to be a long lasting bounce. What I predict will happen is, that the poll will either return to it’s previous state, or will turn in favor of McCain in a bigger percentage for the short term and will even back out, as we get closer to the election. With the news of the failing banking institutions, I believe Obama is going to have something to really nail McCain on, by blaming Bush for the housing crisis, which caused the run on the Banks, he will be able to push that message home to the people. He will do that by telling people, that McCain is basically Bush and Co. 2.0.

There is one cold hard fact that McCain cannot escape, that that is the quote, “A nation of whiners”. Which was given Phil Gramm, who is/was John McCain’s economic adviser. Who was also responsible for the deregulation of the housing loan industry. John McCain cannot escape that fact, at all, and it will come back to haunt him here, as we come closer and closer to election day. Especially seeing that McCain is very heartily trying to paint himself as somewhat of a maverick. McCain supposedly has broken ties with Phil Gramm, however, he has been spotting with McCain since then.

The bottom line here is, that more data is needed, to assess the actual bounce, if any at all.

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